Author Topic: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread  (Read 7693 times)

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2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« on: January 14, 2009, 03:00:34 PM »
So Kate Winslet won both Golden Globes for Actress and Supporting Actress?  That's insane.  Seems like this girl gets nominated for awards every time she appears on film at all, like this generation's Meryl Streep.  I never see her work though, because she stars in a lot of kind of stuffy (looking) shit.  I liked Heavenly Creatures though.

Does this year look favorable to her?  She's been nominated and subsequently snubbed by the Academy like five times already.

For best actor ~ looks like Mickey Rourke is leading the pack here now?  Or can Sean Penn steal this away?

Other thoughts?

JamesU

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2009, 03:17:11 PM »
I'm curious to know peoples opinions of Dark Knight as an Oscar contender. Maybe its just me being a curmudgeon but after hearing all of these 16 year olds on facebook petitioning for it to win everything I had to take the other side. Great Film or great movie? I dunno.

Chris L

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2009, 03:32:21 PM »
I was hoping Tom would mention the Golden Globes last night, but I guess they were understandably overshadowed by the AVNs.  I saw Winslet's second speech and it was revolting.  I'm pretty sure poor Sam Mendes had horns on his head* after all her Leo gushing. 

A bit of trivia:  If Rourke and Heath Ledger both win it will be the first year that two acting awards have been given out posthumously**



*from being cuckolded.  Look it up (if necessary).
** Several crew members who drowned making The Abyss won technical awards in 1990. 
« Last Edit: January 14, 2009, 03:37:08 PM by Chris L »

snogrog

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2009, 03:47:20 PM »
Predictions in the categories I feel like Predicting in:

Best Picture - Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, or The Wrestler (but I do think that The Dark Knight will get a nomination)
Best Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger
Best documentary - Man on Wire
Best Score - The Dark Knight (only speculating as they originally didn't allow it and now have. I have no idea about other score though)
Best Animated - Wall-E

And I can't really guess about actresses as I have not seen enough of the "awards" movies to really have any idea who could get nominated!
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samir

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2009, 03:50:41 PM »
Here are some of my opinions, written prior to watching the wrestler, which blew me away. At least I'm not as contrary as this loon, who uses the word "abortionhorny".
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masterofsparks

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2009, 04:18:26 PM »
Best actor nominations will be:

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Brad Pitt, Benjamin Buttons
Clint Eastwood, Get Off My Lawn
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk

Outside chance: Benicio Del Toro, Che

I have a bad feeling Eastwood will win a legacy Oscar since he's never won for acting and he's said this will be his last role. If it doesn't go to him, it will be a toss-up between Penn and Rourke with the slight advantage to Rourke since Penn just won it a few years back.

Ledger's a lock for best supporting actor.

Although she didn't win the Golden Globe, I think Angelina Jolie's the frontrunner for best actress.

I have no idea on best supporting actress.

My buddy think Dark Knight will score a best picture nomination. I think he's crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if Wall-E gets a best picture nomination, but it won't win. I think best picture will probably go to Benjamin Buttons, which means Fincher will likely win best director.
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snogrog

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2009, 04:26:30 PM »

My buddy think Dark Knight will score a best picture nomination. I think he's crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if Wall-E gets a best picture nomination, but it won't win.


I think TDK has a very good chance to get a nomination. The numbers to support this are here: http://tinyurl.com/tdkoscar

and can't an animated film NOT get a best picture nomination by default now that there is the Best Animated Feature category?

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Bryan

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2009, 04:52:53 PM »
At least I'm not as contrary as this loon, who uses the word "abortionhorny".


Oh boy, that guy. Armond White's knee-jerk contrarianism is not as clever as he thinks it is.

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2009, 05:00:47 PM »
Although she didn't win the Golden Globe, I think Angelina Jolie's the frontrunner for best actress.

Really?  I haven't seen The Changeling, but she's never impressed me in... any role.  Girl, Interrrupted was an obnoxious movie.

Wall-E absolutely can be nominated for Best Picture.  It might get it excluded from the animated film category but it would still be a good tradeoff.

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2009, 05:05:58 PM »
Re: The Wrestler ~ I think Mickey Rourke is this film's best bet here.  I don't think the Academy has the cajones to give a statuette to Darren Aronofsky directly just yet.  Not when there are still plenty of swoopy period epics around to gush about.

(But then, I didn't think it had the balls to award No Country for Old Men either so what do I know.) 
« Last Edit: January 14, 2009, 05:12:31 PM by <<<<< »

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2009, 05:19:22 PM »
Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Director: Danny Boyle
Actor: Sean Penn
Actress: Meryl Streep (though I'm rooting for Anne Hathaway)
Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Adapted Screenplay: John Patrick Shanley - Doubt



« Last Edit: January 23, 2009, 12:33:56 AM by Trinsky »

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2009, 05:25:15 PM »
Can we please stop reading/link/listen to Armond White? It's time, people.

ACTOR: MICKEY ROURKE, THE WEXLER (Haskell Wexler biopic)
ACTRESS: SALLY HAWKINS
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: K-WINS (The Reader)
SUPPORTING ACTOR: will be HEATH LEDGER, should be EDDIE MARSAN
PIC: SLUMDOG-A-MILLI
DIRECTOR: D-BOY, SLUM-D HUNDREDAIRE
SCORE: AR RAHMAN, S-DOG BILLIONAIRE
FOREIGN: WALTZ W/ BASHER (cockney thug learns to dance)

That's all I got

masterofsparks

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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2009, 05:53:56 PM »
Although she didn't win the Golden Globe, I think Angelina Jolie's the frontrunner for best actress.

Really?  I haven't seen The Changeling, but she's never impressed me in... any role.  Girl, Interrrupted was an obnoxious movie.

Just to clarify, I haven't seen Changeling either and I'm not especially fond of her.
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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2009, 06:13:25 PM »
Fair enough.  I've just always felt a little befuddled over why everyone seems so enamoured with her.  She seems fairly middle of the road to me, both as a beauty and as a talent. 

But who knows, maybe this is a breakout role for her.


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Re: 2009 Oscar Speculation Thread
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2009, 08:45:20 PM »
I'm curious to know peoples opinions of Dark Knight as an Oscar contender. Maybe its just me being a curmudgeon but after hearing all of these 16 year olds on facebook petitioning for it to win everything I had to take the other side. Great Film or great movie? I dunno.

I would be hugely surprised if The Dark Knight was nominated for Best Picture. I kinda want it to happen, both because it was one of the best movies I saw last year, and because I think the fallout from the nomination would be fun to watch. People from both sides of the argument would be losing their shit. Anyways, I think it's certainly more deserving of a nomination than that snooze Benjamin Button.

I do think Christopher Nolan will be nominated for Best Director, however, and there is a slim possibility for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination. Ledger will be nominated, but I don't think he'll win. It'll get a ton of technical nominations; I think it has a good shot at Cinematography and Original Score.

As for Best Picture, I think the nominees will be something like this:

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
FROST/NIXON
DOUBT

Maybe Revolutionary Road or Gran Torino will make the cut over Doubt, but the first four are pretty much locks. I think Milk will win; if ever a movie came out at (almost) the right time, it was that one. Plus, I think the Academy needs to save face for not giving the award to Brokebank Mountain a few years ago.

I also predict that, in the future, we won't have all these crazy hangups about sex, man. And there will be three-sided tape. I'll see you there!
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